Grey Swan

The DOJ has decided to sue the Fire Department of New York (FDNY) for racism. Why? Minorities score worse than whites on the entry exam, and are consequently underrepresented in the force.

Here is a sample test question:

While operating at a fire, Capt. Green, the commander of the Ladder Company 999, was sent by Chief Brown to locate the exact location of the fire. The fire building was two stories in height with a basement. Capt. Green found that the fire was located in one corner at the rear of the basement. The best way for Capt. Green to write this information in a fire report upon returning to the firehouse was as follows:

   A) “The fire was located on the lower level, in the rear.”
   B) “The fire was located in the southeast corner of the lower level.”
   C) “The fire was located in the southeast corner of the basement.”
   D) “The fire was located in the rear of the basement.”

The answer is C. Clearly you should give as much detail as possible when writing a report.

However, some people believe the test is culturally loaded. Does the above question look cultural? No. Being able to write a report, navigate a building, and understand simple written and auditory commands is essential for a firefighter. If the test is made easier, more minorities may enter, but the quality of the FDNY will decrease.

Fire Commissioner Nicholas Scoppetta has defended the FDNY by pointing to a rise in minority representation:

“In the five years since this administration took office, we have tripled the minority hiring rate,” said Scoppetta, noting the jump from to 15% from 3%. “I don’t see a perceived deficiency here … we are working to make the department look like the city we serve.”

The jump is because the test has been made easer.

Unfortuanetly, the FDNY may actually lose this case. The DOJ will argue that higher minority failure rate proves the test is biased. They will go on to use experts who explain how deep and entrenched culture bias is, etc. The FDNY will defend itself apologetically, just like Scoppetta. Its lawyers will say it is trying match the cities racial proportions, it is just not there yet. By agreeing with an assumption that differences in failure rate are a solvable problem, the FDNY will probably lose, but it won’t lose badly. The FDNY is probably most afraid of losing money and retroactive hiring. To avoie massive monetary remunerations, it has already accepted that it will need to reduce the quality of its recruits.

What should the FDNY do? If it accepts the assumption that all groups are inherently equal, it will need to prove that its’ test is not biased. Explaining that lower educational attainment among minorities is responsible for their lower test scores will be its best bet. Unfortuanetly, this argument tends to fail before a jury or a judge. If one group is less educated shouldn’t we try to help them by affirmitive action? Isn’t the lack of education just another example of discrimination?

The best argument is that there are intractable differences in groups that explain disparate passing rates. Of course, this will require lawyers to fight the ‘common knowledge’ of 300 million people, and it will be ‘rightly’ defeated as racist.

The Catch 22 – You are discriminating by using a test that minorities fail, and you are racist if you explain the root cause for minorities failing.

We continue to sacrifice the quality of our institutions because we continue to hold incorrect assumptions.